Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,253$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(479 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,563.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,563.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $522$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(94.5 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{479.9}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 24.2)}}\) (asimptote \(479.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,673$ on 2020-05-13

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,169$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(50.8 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,526.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 100.5)}}\) (asimptote \(16,526.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(7.92 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(49.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $971$ on 2020-05-13

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(131 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{334.1}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(334.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(4.43 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.7}{1 + 10^{-0.085 (t - 11.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-05-13

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,431$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(389 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,266.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 63.9)}}\) (asimptote \(23,266.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $556$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(56.7 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{657.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(657.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,389$ on 2020-05-13

Cameroon⮸

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,800$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(273 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,513.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,513.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $136$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(7.12 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{368.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(368.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,121$ on 2020-05-13

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,512$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(519 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,247.3}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,247.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $188$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(49.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181.5}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 19.0)}}\) (asimptote \(181.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,193$ on 2020-05-13

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $522$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(12.8 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{488.7}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(488.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $503$ on 2020-05-13

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,004$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(4.82 \times 10^{0.042t}\) (doubling rate \(7.2\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $843$ on 2020-05-13

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Tunisia recovered 71%
Niger recovered 70%

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,032$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(246 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,016.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 23.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,016.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(14 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43.0}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 16.5)}}\) (asimptote \(43.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $228$ on 2020-05-13

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $860$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(289 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{761.8}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 11.6)}}\) (asimptote \(761.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $49$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(7.32 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(66.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $153$ on 2020-05-13